Fall is the biggest time of year for TV. It’s an exciting time for viewers to fill their weeknights with new back-to-back programming. For networks and industry experts, excitement is met with intense scrutiny. How will the new series be received? Will it be a hit destined for renewal, or will the first season be its last?
Ipsos Connect has been tracking new and returning programs through their syndicated product, TV Dailies, for the past 12 years. The online weekly tracking study offers subscribers a look at key pre- and post-premiere metrics along with competitive benchmarks built using over a decade of historical data. Here’s a pre-premiere look at 19 new fall broadcast programs.
The team analyzed awareness, network linkage, intent to view and buzz among 18-49-year-olds. Data for over 6,000 respondents was collected, and these metrics were averaged over a three-week span from Augusts 28 to Sept. 17.
Of the 19 programs, “Will & Grace” has the highest combined awareness and network linkage, followed by “Young Sheldon” and “Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders.” These programs are revivals or spinoffs of previously successful series, and this often reinforces title recognition and network linkage. Even so, six other programs are also ahead of the norm, which the TV Dailies team calculates using data on 2015 and 2016 hall originals. “Marvel’s Inhumans,” “The Orville,” “The Good Doctor” and “S.W.A.T.” among others, are also above the norm. “SEAL Team” and “The Mayor” are on par with the norm.
“Marvel’s Inhumans” has the highest level of interest and buzz, followed by “Young Sheldon,” “The Orville” and “The Gifted.” Respondents are saying they are not only interested in viewing these programs, but they have recently communicated about them as well. The highly-recognized “Will & Grace” and “Law & Order True Crime” are in line with the norm, including others such as “The Good Doctor,” “S.W.A.T.” and “The Mayor.”
High awareness levels do not necessarily equate to positive interest and buzz for a program, and vice versa, which is illustrated using the four quadrants below. But for those programs that boast a hearty combination of high awareness, network linkage, interest and buzz, do they hold the recipe for a successful fall season and subsequent renewal?
Will programs such as the “Young Sheldon,” “Marvel’s Inhumans,” “The Orville” (premiered 9/10), and “The Gifted” be hits based on strong pre-premiere metrics? These are the titles that are highly recognized and respondents know which network they will air. Respondents are saying they plan to watch these programs, and they’re also communicating about them.
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